Publications
Peer-reviewed demand-systems research, published consultancy briefs, and the open-source code repositories that back both.
The publication record is built around three commitments. First, every quantitative result ships with a replication package: code, data manifests, parameter restrictions, and the exact estimation routine, so a skeptical reader can rerun the analysis and land on the same numbers. Second, every input is sourced from primary data: BACI, UN Comtrade, FAOSTAT, IMF, World Bank, BLS, EIA, MLPerf, and equivalent. Synthetic and second-hand series are flagged explicitly when used for sensitivity work. Third, methods are matched to the question rather than to fashion. A Rotterdam or EASI demand system gets full restriction batteries (adding up, homogeneity, symmetry) and dual estimation for standard error recovery on the dropped equation. A hedonic specification gets a Heckman selection correction when zero-flow pairs are non-trivial. The same discipline that goes into a journal submission goes into a client brief.
Peer-reviewed and working papers
Recent
International wine demand: Rotterdam model with cross-lag ISURE and dual estimation
Working paper, submission in progress
Non-linear SUR estimation with the full restriction battery (adding up, homogeneity, symmetry), cross-equation lag structure, and dual estimation of the numeraire equation for standard error recovery. Produces a replication-quality elasticity matrix matched to the published reference do-file within 0.5 percent across 42 parameters.
Recent
Hedonic price analysis of Vietnamese wood exports
Working paper, submission in progress
Log-linear hedonic specification with destination, species, and grade fixed effects on an HS8 panel, Heckman correction for zero-flow pairs, and a quality-ladder decomposition. Identifies a 12 percent FSC-certified premium captured on shipments routed via Rotterdam that is invisible in headline unit-value statistics.
Recent
EASI demand system estimation for food consumption
Working paper, submission in progress
Exact Affine Stone Index demand system on household food expenditure data, with rank-three Engel curves and full integrability restrictions imposed at estimation rather than tested ex post.
Recent
Beef demand systems estimation
Working paper, submission in progress
Comparative estimation of Rotterdam and AIDS specifications on beef cuts, with bootstrapped elasticity confidence intervals and a structural-break diagnostic across BSE-era and post-BSE subsamples.
Consultancy briefs
2026
The CHIPS Act and the Taiwan share that went up, not down
Deluair Consultancy briefs
13 minute read. BACI V202601 panel analysis of US HS 8541 and HS 8542 imports 2018 to 2024, separating AI demand signal from reshoring signal and identifying the equipment-import and Malaysia-share signatures already visible in the data.
2026
The 3.2x compute curve: what GB200 actually changes about training ROI
Deluair Consultancy briefs
12 minute read. MLPerf Training and EIA grounded effective FLOPs per dollar comparison across A100, H100, H200, B200, and GB200 NVL72, with a workload-specific break-even utilization framework for capex decisions.
Code and platforms
EconAI causal inference toolkit
https://github.com/deluair/econai
12 estimators (OLS, IV, Panel FE, DiD, Staggered DiD, Synthetic DiD, RDD, Double ML, Causal Forest, Shift-Share, Manski and Rambachan-Roth bounds, randomization inference) across 47 modules. Used in the published demand systems work and in policy-impact engagements.
TradeWeave trade intelligence
https://github.com/deluair/tradeweave
30-year BACI engine across 238 countries and 5,022 HS6 product lines, with gravity models, Hausmann-Hidalgo product-space diagnostics, RCA and ECI/PCI scoring, and named-scenario counterfactual modeling.
Aegis applied economics platform
https://github.com/deluair/aegis
18 analytical layers across 257 modules, covering data ingestion, harmonization, estimation, narrative generation, and dashboarding for applied economics work.