Macro-financial risk
2026-04-26
10 min read
10 sources
Argentina Year Two: Milei's Fiscal Anchor and the Disinflation Bet
Fifteen months in, the Milei administration has delivered a primary surplus, crushed monthly inflation from 25.5 percent to roughly 2.5 percent, and pulled in a fresh IMF Extended Fund Facility. The remaining bet is sequencing: lift the cepo without losing the peso, and turn Vaca Muerta plus the lithium triangle into a reserve story that survives the 2027 cycle.
Javier Milei took office on December 10, 2023, with a primary fiscal deficit of roughly 3 percent of GDP, monthly headline inflation of 25.5 percent in December 2023, and net BCRA reserves near minus 11 billion dollars. Fifteen months later the picture has inverted. The 2024 primary surplus closed at 1.8 percent of GDP, the first full-yea...