Where the math is defensible.

Australia 2026: Household Debt, the Mortgage Roll, and Big-Four Balance Sheets

The fixed-rate cliff has cleared, but Australian household leverage, RBA easing, and concentrated bank exposures still define the macro-financial outlook through 2028.

Australia enters 2026 with the highest household debt-to-income ratio in the OECD, a residential mortgage book that has now fully repriced from the 2020 to 2021 ultra-low fixed cohort, and a Big Four banking system whose collective balance sheet equals roughly two and a half times nominal GDP. With the RBA having pivoted from a 4.35 perce...