Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Adaptation finance in 2026: the NCQG arithmetic, the FRLD ramp, and the country platform stress test
Developing country adaptation needs sit between USD 215 and 387 billion per year by 2030, against measured public flows of roughly USD 28 billion in 2022. The Baku NCQG and the operationalized FRLD Fund define the politics, but the binding question is whether MDB co-financing ratios and country platforms can move capital at scale.
The UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2024 sizes developing country adaptation needs at USD 215 to 387 billion per year by 2030 against tracked international public adaptation flows of roughly USD 28 billion in 2022. The new collective quantified goal agreed at COP29 Baku replaces the prior USD 100 billion floor with a USD 300 billion per year p...
Colombia 2026: Petro fiscal arithmetic and the post Bogota electoral year
Gustavo Petro enters his final budget cycle with a 57 percent debt path, a fragile fiscal rule, and an Ecopetrol production curve that no longer finances his social spending agenda. The 2026 municipal cycle and a recomposed Senate decide whether the cambio coalition holds.
Colombia under President Gustavo Petro reaches 2026 with the fiscal arithmetic critics warned about in 2022. Central government debt sits near 57 percent of GDP per Ministerio de Hacienda fiscal year 2024 figures, the Comite Autonomo de la Regla Fiscal (CARF) has issued repeated unfavorable opinions on the medium-term framework, and Ecope...